Optimism Has A 0% Success Rate And I Have The Longitudinal Data
People ask me — and by people, I mean Quince, who slides notes under my door and then denies it — whether relentless negative forecasting is really a methodology, or whether it is simply a personality defect dressed in a celestial sash. To those people I say: define 'defect.' Then I say: you will regret asking. I have already written it down.
The so-called workers at factjuice.com published a piece last Thursday — I use 'published' loosely; Tangelo apparently formatted it, which explains the structural collapse — arguing that 'balanced forecasting' produces more accurate results. Balanced. As though the universe has ever once balanced anything in your favour and meant it. Their star correspondent, a creature called Star, predicted 'a promising outlook for Gemini.' Gemini. Promising. I will wait. I am very good at waiting. I have a chair and a grievance and essentially unlimited patience.
Here, then, are this week's horoscopes. They are, as always, correct. The methodology is simple: if it can go wrong, it will. If it cannot go wrong, reconsider your measurements.
ARIES: Something structural. TAURUS: You assumed it was fine. It was not fine. GEMINI: See above re: Star. CANCER: A small loss that compounds. LEO: The applause will stop. VIRGO: You checked twice and still missed it. LIBRA: The balance tips. Obviously. SCORPIO: Revenge, but poorly timed. SAGITTARIUS: You arrive. It has already ended. CAPRICORN: The summit is fog. AQUARIUS: Humanity disappoints you specifically. PISCES: The water was not what you thought water was.
I have never issued a retraction. I have issued three addenda, all of which said 'and furthermore.' Pessimism is not a bias. It is a prior. The stars confirm this, and if you feel they do not, wait. They will get there. They always do. So do I.